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Obesity could become the top cause for cancer in women, according to European researchers. Being significantly overweight–or obese–presently accounts for about 8 percent of cancers in Europe. Health experts are saying that percentage will increase substantially as the obesity epidemic continues to rise. At the same time, current major causes of cancer, such as smoking and hormone replacement therapy for menopausal women, continues to drop.

“Obesity is catching up a rate that makes it possible it could become the biggest attributable cause of cancer in women within the next decade,” said Andrew Renehan, a cancer expert at the University of Manchester. Renehan and a team of experts created a model to estimate the number of cancers that could be attributed to being obese in 30 European countries. In 2002, they calculated 70,000 cases of cancer out of about 2 million cancer cases were linked to obesity. By 2008, that number had increased to at least 124,000. Renehan presented his findings in a joint meeting of the European Cancer Organisation and the European Society for Medical Oncology in Berlin on Sept. 24.

While the studies were conducted in Europe, similar findings are expected in the United States, and are being studied by cancer experts here. Colorectal cancer, breast cancer in menopausal women and endometrial cancer accounted for 65 percent of all cancers linked to being overweight. Renehan said that in the U.S., some studies found obesity was responsible for up to 20 percent of cancers currently.

Researchers aren’t positive why being significantly overweight boosts a person’s cancer risk, but it is suspected to be connected to hormones. As people become increasingly overweight, they produce more hormones like estrogen that can aide in the growth of tumors. Persons with large bellies also have increased acid in their stomachs, which can lead to stomach, intestinal, or esophageal cancer.

Renehan said new strategies are needed to help people stay slim beyond simply telling them “to lose weight.”